Briefly:
The overall negative consequences of this move in a chaotic & volatile region like the current Middle East are Chrystal clear & needless to explore. That's why, since 1995 that this "Jerusalem Embassy Act" was passed by the 104th Congress, none of the U.S. presidents executed this act. Considering this brief introduction, there are some rumors that Trump administration might declare Jerusalem as the capital of Israel & consequently moves the U.S. Embassy to this city. This issue raises an important questions as follows: What might be the main reasons behind this possible move?
Based on my knowledge about president Trump, the overall moves of his administration and some other ongoing events within the USA & the Middle East, i have come to the following possible reasons in this regard.
A- The First Possible Reason: Trump's Weaknesses:
Contrary to what president Trump & some of his followers claim, D. Trump does not have a proper knowledge & understanding about foreign affairs & generally speaking how the foreign policy and the role of a super power like the USA at regional & global level should be. In addition to this weakness, D. Trump has another big problem and that is his attitude that he wants to govern the state the way that he has run his business. This attitude means that due to the fact that Trump is the boss or the president, he knows better than others and everybody around him should accept & follow his order no matter what. The combination of these two characteristics have caused many chaos, misunderstanding & mistakes performed by Trump administration around the world. In order to mitigate these weaknesses, D. Trump has different techniques. One of them is "spreading rumor about something that he might do or not do in the near future".
By spreading the rumor about some event that might happen or not happen in the near future, many politicians & pundits would react. D. Trump & his close allies go through all comments & critics & try to choose the best option & accordingly perform less mistakes. The current rumor about moving U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem might be partly due to this reason.
D. Trump uses this technique in another occasion and that is when he wants to impose his idea or opinion forcefully & indirectly on one of his cabinet members & advisers or he is not satisfied with them based on any reason whatsoever. In this respect, the case of replacement of S. R. Tillerson with M. Pompeo is a good example. The rumor in this regard, forced S. Tillerson to suddenly leave the State Department & go to the White House. We have seen such a trick in case of S. J. Sessions couple of months ago as well.
B- The Second Possible Reason: Good Cop-Bad Cop policy-Trump's Model:
D. Trump and his hotshot son-in-law without any experience in foreign policy & foreign affairs have decided to make a peace deal between Israel & Palestine. This is not an easy task specially for these two gentlemen. They have probably hit the wall at the present time. That's why, D. Trump has spread the rumor in this regard and would try by using this leverage, would force the Palestinian authority & some in Arab states to accept whatever Trump administration dictates throughout the entire peace process. Or this move might be a some type of blackmail. As it appears the Gulf States have a plan to create An Arab NATO. By a rumor about moving U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, Trump wants to indirectly force the Arab States to buy all their necessary military weapons & equipment for this matter from the USA and not other powerful competitors such as the EU, China or Russia.
A type of invisible Coercion in all these cases mentioned above. This might be one of the main reasons behind this possible move.
C- The Third Possible Reason: Domestic Problem At Home:
Whether anyone within Trump administration, close allies or campaign have intentionally or unintentionally coordinated or cooperated with Russian authority or some wealthy Russian individuals are unclear issue to me at least up until this moment. But one thing is clear for me & that is that the Russian finger prints (Governmental or non-governmental or both are unknown for me) in 2016 U.S. election are clearly visible. This allegation has caused & would cause huge problem for Trump administration in the future as well. In such a desperate situation, declaring Jerusalem as the capital of Israel might be a great help. The declaration in this regard would mobilize the entire powerful Israeli lobby behind D. Trump and accordingly would strengthen and empower his position in this internal battle. This might be one of the main reasons behind this possible move.
D- The Fourth Reason: Business:
There is an allegation against General Flynn that he wanted to secretly promote a plan to build some nuclear plants across the Middle East. This was a collective plan between American, Russian, French & Israeli companies. According to Wall Street Journal, "The plan was projected to generate $250 billion in revenue for U.S. companies".
We all know Kushner's company is in a very difficult financial problem. The Building 666 in New York & the huge debt of this building that like Guillotine has stood above the neck of Kushners is known for the entire world. Considering these issues, there might be a very fat & beneficial business contract behind the scene. Therefore Trump administration & J. Kushner want to declare Jerusalem the capital of Israel to benefit from such a economic deal, which some Jewish Israeili or American are possibly involved like the case of nuclear plants of General Flynn. This might one of the main reasons behind this possible move.
As i said from the beginning of this brief explanation, the overall negative consequences of this move whether in the peace process between Israeli & Palestinian authority or in the Middle East or generally speaking among 1.5 billion Muslims around the world are Chrystal clear. Some might claim that Trump would do this move in order to keep his promise during the election or empower the position of his favorite candidate in upcoming Alabama election. In response to these arguments i should say that there is no doubt that this move would cover these issues to some extent. But we should bear in mind that there have been numerous examples in the past year presidency that Trump has tried to broke some of his promises.
During the election, for example, Trump said he would not tough medicaid & medicare for poor & low income families. Moreover Trump said he would not deport the dreamers (DACA ACT). Furthermore he said, he would not deport illegal immigrants if they have not done any criminal activities. A simple review about Trump's resume in the past year shows that D. Trump has multiple times tried to break his promises in these regards & or at least undermine the legitimacy of these rules. When it comes to empowering the position of the Republican candidate in upcoming election in Alabama, Trump could perform some other moves with less backlash & negative consequences. Thus, these types of shallow arguments cannot justify such a move with such huge consequences specially at the time that Trump & his son-in-law are struggling to achieve a historical credit with regard to make a peace deal between Israel & Palestine. However, as far as i analyze this rumor, i don't see any other reason for such a wrong move at the present time; except one of the reasons mentioned above or the combination of some of them.
Note: Some in Israel are happy about this news that Trump might declare Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. This people don't know about the overall impact of this move, current situation of the Middle East & many other future events. Today is not 1948, nor is 1967 And the future events of the Middle East do not move in the direction of those GOLDEN YEARS. In short, if i was an Israeli citizen & loved my state, i wouldn't be happy about this move specially at this particular time based on many reasons.
M. Sirani 03.12.2017
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