Tuesday, August 22, 2017
Friday, August 11, 2017
How The Current Tension With North Korea Might Change The Reaction of Trump Administration With Regards to Iran & The JCPOA? (A Possibly Dangerous Situation).
Briefly: (This short note has been written in 15 min without editing, etc etc).
This is a fact that the recent nuclear and ballistic missile activities along with planning to launch some missile toward Guam (A U.S. Territory) by North Korea have put the Trump administration in a very critical position. According to some analysis, North Korea has so far obtained between 50-60 nuclear bombs and its recent activities show that the country has had a rapid progress on its ballistic missile program as well. To put it simply, North Korea has achieved a capability to hit many places in the USA by its nuclear-ballistic missiles. This issue has put the USA in a very critical situation. The Trump administration cannot simply ignore the recent activities and the threat of North Korea. At the same time, trying to solve this complicated issue through a type of preemptive strike could be costly in different terms not only for the USA and North Korea, but also for some other countries in the South East Asia due to the nuclear & ballistic missile capability of both the USA & North Korea.
Whether the USA & North Korea would ease the tension and solve this conflict through diplomacy or the rhetoric wars between Washington & Pyongyang would end up into a devastating military confrontation are beyond the scope of this short writing. But this tension would lead us to another important issue and that is the JCPOA; the nuclear deal with Iran.
As we all know, whether during the presidential race or his presidency, Donald. Trump has repeatedly mentioned that the JCPOA is the worst deal ever that the USA has made. In addition, President Trump has stated in many occasions that he would like to tear up the deal. The recent tension with North Korea and its complicated details, would undoubtedly put the Trump administration in another complicated position. The Trump administration would highly likely try to have a simple comparison between current North Korea and Iran. The administration might highly likely come to the following conclusions:
North Korea has nuclear bomb & ballistic missiles. Military strike against North Korea is dangerous, costly and cannot fundamentally change anything with regards to nuclear & ballistic missile capability of North Korea. North Korea has passed the red line for ever in this respect.
But, what about Iran? Apparently Iran has not obtained nuclear bomb yet. In addition, the ballistic missile program of Iran has not progressed as North Korean to cause a serious threat for the USA. But, if the time passes, Iran might highly likely pass the red line the same as North Korea after couple months or years. In such a hypothetical scenario, the USA cannot curb or counter Iran.
Based on this calculation, the Trump administration might highly likely tear up the JCPOA or launch a preemptive strike against Iran to prevent the country to reach the untouchable position of North Korea.
In short, the current tension with North Korea would undoubtedly impact the JCPOA and the policy of the Trump administration toward Iran in the near future.
M. Sirani 11.08.2017
This is a fact that the recent nuclear and ballistic missile activities along with planning to launch some missile toward Guam (A U.S. Territory) by North Korea have put the Trump administration in a very critical position. According to some analysis, North Korea has so far obtained between 50-60 nuclear bombs and its recent activities show that the country has had a rapid progress on its ballistic missile program as well. To put it simply, North Korea has achieved a capability to hit many places in the USA by its nuclear-ballistic missiles. This issue has put the USA in a very critical situation. The Trump administration cannot simply ignore the recent activities and the threat of North Korea. At the same time, trying to solve this complicated issue through a type of preemptive strike could be costly in different terms not only for the USA and North Korea, but also for some other countries in the South East Asia due to the nuclear & ballistic missile capability of both the USA & North Korea.
Whether the USA & North Korea would ease the tension and solve this conflict through diplomacy or the rhetoric wars between Washington & Pyongyang would end up into a devastating military confrontation are beyond the scope of this short writing. But this tension would lead us to another important issue and that is the JCPOA; the nuclear deal with Iran.
As we all know, whether during the presidential race or his presidency, Donald. Trump has repeatedly mentioned that the JCPOA is the worst deal ever that the USA has made. In addition, President Trump has stated in many occasions that he would like to tear up the deal. The recent tension with North Korea and its complicated details, would undoubtedly put the Trump administration in another complicated position. The Trump administration would highly likely try to have a simple comparison between current North Korea and Iran. The administration might highly likely come to the following conclusions:
North Korea has nuclear bomb & ballistic missiles. Military strike against North Korea is dangerous, costly and cannot fundamentally change anything with regards to nuclear & ballistic missile capability of North Korea. North Korea has passed the red line for ever in this respect.
But, what about Iran? Apparently Iran has not obtained nuclear bomb yet. In addition, the ballistic missile program of Iran has not progressed as North Korean to cause a serious threat for the USA. But, if the time passes, Iran might highly likely pass the red line the same as North Korea after couple months or years. In such a hypothetical scenario, the USA cannot curb or counter Iran.
Based on this calculation, the Trump administration might highly likely tear up the JCPOA or launch a preemptive strike against Iran to prevent the country to reach the untouchable position of North Korea.
In short, the current tension with North Korea would undoubtedly impact the JCPOA and the policy of the Trump administration toward Iran in the near future.
M. Sirani 11.08.2017
Thursday, August 10, 2017
North Korea Has Threatened to Launch Military Strike Against Guam (The USA). Why NATO Does Not react Through a Short Statement???!!!
Briefly:
It seems some enjoy to see Trump administration is under pressure.
M. Sirani 10.08.2017
It seems some enjoy to see Trump administration is under pressure.
M. Sirani 10.08.2017
Wednesday, August 9, 2017
Developing A New Grand Strategy For Asia & South East Asia Is A Necessary Move For the USA.
Briefly:
The USA has moved in a totally wrong direction in many areas since 1990. Otherwise, the country could have had a much better and stronger position at global level. In this respect, i have to admit that some ideas of both H. Kissinger & Z. Brzezinski have played an important role in this matter. Cleaning up these messes, however, at this stage is not an easy task; but it is not impossible.
At the present time, the USA should develop a totally new Grand Strategy, which includes and covers some important issues such as A- The rise of China and its expansionist behavior in different terms, B- North Korea & its nuclear-ballistic missile activities, C- The rise & activities of various radical Islamic groups, and D- Curbing & countering drug cartels & drug trafficking.
Note: With some reactionary moves, you cannot deal with these critical issues in Asia.
M. Sirani 09.08.2017
The USA has moved in a totally wrong direction in many areas since 1990. Otherwise, the country could have had a much better and stronger position at global level. In this respect, i have to admit that some ideas of both H. Kissinger & Z. Brzezinski have played an important role in this matter. Cleaning up these messes, however, at this stage is not an easy task; but it is not impossible.
At the present time, the USA should develop a totally new Grand Strategy, which includes and covers some important issues such as A- The rise of China and its expansionist behavior in different terms, B- North Korea & its nuclear-ballistic missile activities, C- The rise & activities of various radical Islamic groups, and D- Curbing & countering drug cartels & drug trafficking.
Note: With some reactionary moves, you cannot deal with these critical issues in Asia.
M. Sirani 09.08.2017
Thursday, August 3, 2017
Merit-Based Immigration System Does Not Function in the USA (This is A Clear "Mirror Imaging" & Wrong Copy & Paste From Canada & Australia).
Briefly:
Merit-Based immigration system has functioned for some countries like Canada & Australia since some decades ago. But this system does not function in the USA based on numerous reasons. This is a clear Mirror Imaging and the USA will suffer a lot in different terms in the next couple of years following the implementation of this policy.
Note: This example shows some weaknesses in terms of planning, policy analysis, policy implementation and risk management within Trump administration.
M. Sirani 03.08.2017
Merit-Based immigration system has functioned for some countries like Canada & Australia since some decades ago. But this system does not function in the USA based on numerous reasons. This is a clear Mirror Imaging and the USA will suffer a lot in different terms in the next couple of years following the implementation of this policy.
Note: This example shows some weaknesses in terms of planning, policy analysis, policy implementation and risk management within Trump administration.
M. Sirani 03.08.2017
Wednesday, August 2, 2017
Just Remember This: Anytime the Trump Administration Takes A Tough Stand or Decides to Impose Any Sanction on Iran, Something "Bad" Would Happen to Either Karoobi or Mousavi or Rouhani (Good Cop-Bad Cop Policy).
Briefly:
Anytime the Trump Administration Takes A Tough Stand or Decides to Impose Any Sanction on Iran, Something "Bad" Would Happen to Either Karoobi, Mousavi, Rouhani or some other so-called "Reformist Figures" (Good Cop). Since couple days ago, we understood that the Senate has approved a series of sanctions against Iran, Russia & North Korea. Let see what has happened in Iran. Just a few examples:
1- Mr. Freydoon the brother of president Rouhani was arrested and was in jail for one night.
2- M. Karrobi was hospitalized due to probably hearth problem.
3- Today, the children of M. H. Mousavi state that the health condition of their father has been deteriorated since last night.
The combination of these external and internal events show one thing: Good Cop & Bad Cop policy of Iranian Regime and the naivety of some western politicians and pundits, who after nearly 40 years would be misleading by the Iranian Regime again & again by the same good cop & bad cop policy.
M. Sirani 02.08.2017
Anytime the Trump Administration Takes A Tough Stand or Decides to Impose Any Sanction on Iran, Something "Bad" Would Happen to Either Karoobi, Mousavi, Rouhani or some other so-called "Reformist Figures" (Good Cop). Since couple days ago, we understood that the Senate has approved a series of sanctions against Iran, Russia & North Korea. Let see what has happened in Iran. Just a few examples:
1- Mr. Freydoon the brother of president Rouhani was arrested and was in jail for one night.
2- M. Karrobi was hospitalized due to probably hearth problem.
3- Today, the children of M. H. Mousavi state that the health condition of their father has been deteriorated since last night.
The combination of these external and internal events show one thing: Good Cop & Bad Cop policy of Iranian Regime and the naivety of some western politicians and pundits, who after nearly 40 years would be misleading by the Iranian Regime again & again by the same good cop & bad cop policy.
M. Sirani 02.08.2017
Tuesday, August 1, 2017
RE Nuclear & Ballistic Missile Activities of North Korea (I Have Developed A Plan, Which Might Solve This Problem).
Briefly:
The USA and its allies can continue with a type of Cat & Mouse Game (Imposing sanctions, isolating, etc) with North Korea. But these policies, no matter how harsh, cannot curb, counter or stop the nuclear & ballistic missile activities of North Korea. This is a fact. In addition, the chance that both China & North Korea would accept the recent Kissinger's proposal in this regard is very low or i might say nearly impossible.
In this regard, i have developed a plan, which might put an end to nuclear & ballistic missile activities of North Korea.
M. Sirani 01.08.2017
The USA and its allies can continue with a type of Cat & Mouse Game (Imposing sanctions, isolating, etc) with North Korea. But these policies, no matter how harsh, cannot curb, counter or stop the nuclear & ballistic missile activities of North Korea. This is a fact. In addition, the chance that both China & North Korea would accept the recent Kissinger's proposal in this regard is very low or i might say nearly impossible.
In this regard, i have developed a plan, which might put an end to nuclear & ballistic missile activities of North Korea.
M. Sirani 01.08.2017
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