There is High Probability for Both FrancExit And ItalyExit. Either FrancExit or ItalyExit or Both Would Highly Likely Lead to the Total Collapse of the EU (Remember My Prediction).

Should this happen, Germany would lose a lot in different terms. Honestly, i don't see a bright future for Germany in this regard based on many reasons.

M. Sirani                     28.11.2016

What Most of the High Ranking Politicians & Distinguished Pundits Don't Get it (Remember My Short Prediction).

Globally, we are passing through a new transformation phase. The reason that confirms my statement in this matter is the notion that the current international laws, conventions, regulations and institutions in different terms do not function properly anymore. What we observed in Brexit and recently in the USA are the observable signs of the collapse of current world order. We are in the beginning of new era. An era that like Scientific Revolution or Industrial Revolution would deeply shape & change the course of our history in the future.  

We should design a totally new world order (some areas need fundamental change & replacement, some other areas need adjustment & reform) and shape the future events in a correct and proper direction. Otherwise, the gradual collapse of current world order, which is accompanied with destruction and chaos, would unintentionally & forcefully drag us to unknown risky directions. This is a very dangerous & scary scenario.


Note: We don't feel the Earth's motion, while the Earth is orbiting around the Sun. Like this example, most of the people do not experience & observe what i have briefly explained above. 
President-Elect Trump has correctly identified some of these structural problems. This trend is clearly visible in some of his speeches during the presidential race. How would he deal with these problems; how would he design a new world order to deal with these issues, are some questions, which it is too soon to answer them with high accuracy at this stage. 



M. Sirani                            25.11.2016 

Warning: If the EU would Not Be Able to Solve Its Problem With Turkey, The EU Would Experience the First Wave/s of Refugees (And Terror) In the Near Future.

And Terror: Due to the fact that ISIS or other Islamic Terrorist Groups would deploy their followers into the EU among refugees.


Note: Obama administration and the EU have bribed Turkey; have closed their eyes to various regressive developments in Turkey throughout the last couple of years. Now is Payback Time. The lack of a proper agreement between EU & Turkey would hit all the EU countries in different terms. Within the EU, those states, which have the large numbers of Turks and Kurds citizens would suffer the most; due to the additional clash between Turks & Kurds.  I don't see a pretty future for Germany not only in this case but also in other areas. 

As such, i don't think A. Merkel government would be able to survive in the upcoming political turmoil in Germany. 

M. Sirani                   25.11.2016

President-Elect Trump's NATO Remarks and The Newly Approved EU Army. Who Should Offer D. Trump An Apology?

Briefly:

Throughout the last couple of months, D. Trump has been criticizing NATO based on two main reasons as follows. A- NATO is obsolete. B- All the members of NATO should pay their fair shares.

Both arguments of D. Trump in this regard are logical and correct based on many reasons. For example, NATO is the most powerful military entity in the world. But, when it comes to a small state like Afghanistan and small group like Taliban, NATO has not been able to establish peace and instability in that country after nearly 15 years war. So is the case of ISIS. NATO couldn't stop or prevent various terrorist attacks of ISIS followers across the EU. The argument of D. Trump in this regard is totally correct; simply because the nature of warfare in some areas around the world has changed. At the present time asymmetrical & proxy war are the most used warfare around the world. When it comes to this type of war, NATO is totally paralyzed and obsolete, whether those NATO Generals like this argument are not. This is a fact.

When it comes to paying the fair share by all NATO members, D. Trump's argument is also correct. This issue would be totally understandable, if we consider some other factors such as A- The current national debt of the USA (Nearly $20 Trillion dollars), B- The total amount of trade deficit of the USA, C- The competitive economic power of the USA in comparison with other rising economic powers around the world, the high rates unemployment in the USA, increasing level of poverty among US citizens and many other factors.

Despite the fact that these two arguments of D. Trump were / are logical & reasonable, many politicians and pundits within the USA and around the world accused him in a very unfair and unethical manner by saying that Trump would weaken NATO or Trump would dissolve NATO.
After all these unjust and inaccurate accusation, we hear that the EU parliament has recently approved a resolution, which would allow the creation of the EU Army.

Due to the fact that establishment of such a military entity parallel to NATO would fundamentally weaken NATO, someone should ask all those critics: who has dissolved and weakened NATO? D. Trump or those genius, who designed & approved the creation of the EU Army? Who should offer D. Trump an apology in this regard?



M. Sirani                       25.11.2016   

The EU Parliament Has Approved A Resolution To Create "The EU Army". (This Project Will Highly Likely Fail).

Regardless of the overall impact of this new army on NATO, overlapping and clash between these two military entities, this project will highly likely fail due to many reasons particularly the notion that the entire EU is not in a very good shape in different terms at the present time. To put it simply, the EU is on the verge of collapse. As such, creating a NEW EU ARMY cannot like a glue keep different parts of the EU together.


Note: This project is based on some unrealistic & illogical assessments and will highly likely fail. Both, A. Merkel and F. Hollande are committing political suicide and also are increasing the debts for Germany & France by this move; of course if they would implement this project.



M. Sirani                     25.11.2016

Freezing Turkey EU Membership Means

Such a move alone does not solve anything at all and is counterproductive. Some of the primary negative consequences of this move might be:

1- Influx of refugees from Turkey to the EU.

2- A good bye to Cyprus Talk between Greece & Turkey.

3- More chaotic military activities of Turkey in Iraq, Syria and against Kurds.

4- Turkey might bandwagon to Russia & China (Erdogan has talked about it recently; joining the Shanghai Treaty).

Note: Whether we like it or not, Erdogan has the upper hand in comparison with USA-the EU, based on many reasons. 

M. Sirani                24.11.2016

Remember My Prediction: The EU is Not in A Very Good Shape; The Collapse of the Union Somewhere in the Future is Highly Likely Inevitable (The EU Had 26 Years Time; But It Didn't Use It Properly).

Thanks to "Kindergarten Foreign Policy" of Obama Administration, The EU and NATO, R. Erdogan Says: Turkey Could Join The Shanghai Treaty Bloc (I predicted such a move Briefly Two Years Ago).

Those genius policy makers in Obama administration, the EU and NATO are left with two options as follows:

A- They should bribe Turkey "once again" (In addition to $6 billion amid refugees) in order to keep Turkey where it is now in terms of EU, NATO & the USA.

B- With crying eyes, they should watch how Turkey is joining the Shanghai Treaty somewhere in the future.

Note: What would be the negative consequences of such a move in different terms? (I'm not sure those genius in Obama administration, the EU and NATO have a clear clue in this regard).


M. Sirani                           20.11.2016

It Seems Russia is Agreed to Sell Anti-Aircraft S-400 Systtem to Turkey; While NATO is in the Hibernation Mode.

Egypt & Turkey would highly likely bandwagoning to Russia somewhere in the future; thanks to Kindergarten Foreign Policy of Obama admin and those genius decision makers in NATO, who are physically living in 2016, but when it comes to their mentality, they are living in 1960s & 70s.


M. Sirani                19.11.2016 

Many People Probably Hundreds of Millions Around the World Didn't & Still Don't Get It That Trump's Victory in the USA Saved The Entire World From A Possible Third World War.

President-Elect Trump Has Not Arrived in the White House; But Trump Tsunami Has Already Started to Hit the World.

Briefly: (The Backlash of Kindergarten Foreign Policy of Some Kids)

Just follow the various development around the world.

Bulgaria: A pro-socialist- Russia President won the election in Bulgaria.
Moldova: A pro-Russia President will highly likely win the election in Moldova.


Note: The unnecessary conflict in Ukraine has also played an important role in these developments as well. Many changes in different terms are ahead of all us no matter where we live.

M. Sirani                       13.11.2016

Brexit======>Americaexit======>Highly Likely Francexit + Italyeixt======>Collapse of the EU

Briefly: The EU had 26 golden years opportunity; but it didn't use it properly. I believe it is too late to reverse the time back again and implement a new series of policy to save itself from the upcoming mandatory collapse. If my prediction would come true, Germany would lose the most in both within the EU region & consequently at global level.

If Trump administration plays smart, the USA can win and gain a lot in different terms at global level.


M. Sirani                      13.11.2016

The Political Joke of 2016.

Briefly:

A group of U.S. based genius think tanks, who couldn't have a correct analysis and prediction about a simple event like the result of recent presidential election in the USA, has offered President-Elect D. J. Trump their expertise with regards to various development and events around the world.

Note: I'm speechless.

M. Sirani                      12.11.2016 

We Need A New World Order Urgently; The Current One Does Not Function Properly. Brexit & Americaexit are the First Alarming Signs.

Briefly:

Different factors indicate a fact that current international institutions, laws and regulations do not function properly. The effects of such weaknesses in different terms are Chrystal Clear and observable everywhere in both developed and underdeveloped countries. There are ongoing civil wars in many areas, while the United Nations is unable to solve them. There are increasing rates of unemployment all around the world. Large numbers of people nearly 65 million people are refugees or displaced people and many other examples.

All examples noted above, indicate a fact that we need a New World Order. Those superpower or regional powers, which do not understand this important factor and do not do anything about it, will undoubtedly decline in different terms & forms.


M. Sirani                    09.11.2016  

Clinton Campaign is Worried About Trump Proposal Amid Deeper & Further Prosecution of Clinton Activities & Clinton Foundation.

Briefly: Based on many data, the majority of U.S. citizens do not trust the political system and institutions in their country. This problem should be solved immediately & broadly.

For the sake of mainly A- safety and security of the USA and the U.S. citizens, B- improving the rule of law & order within U.S. political system, and C- Removing the gap between the people and political system, President Trump should fulfill his promise in this regard. If President Trump ignores this important task, he will lose some of his popularity & credibility among the public not only among the American people but also in the entire world. This issue would be worse than the case of "Closing Guantanamo Prison" for Obama; due to the fact that the scope of damage and destruction that Clinton's activities caused for U.S. political system and citizens in different terms are much higher and bigger than the case of Guantanamo. Moreover, If President Trump would not pursue the justice in case of ClintonGate, Clinton and her powerful allies would paralyze Trump administration in different terms and would not allow him to reach the end of his first 4 years term. Thus, along with those Ethical Reforms, this case should be re-investigated again and justice should be served. Such a move, would empower & strengthen Trump administration in different terms whether at domestic or foreign arena and would be a positive historical lesson for future generations of the USA. It could be: A Type of Unforgettable Justifiable Legacy, which has closed a dirty and dark chapter in the entire U.S. history. 

Note: What is worried me the most: Obama would give Amnesty to Clintons. 


M. Sirani                             09.11.2016 

Some Important Lessons of 2016 U.S. Election.

Briefly:

Without any doubt, the recent presidential election of the USA has had different types of lessons for different types of people not only within the USA but also around the world. Among all these lessons some of them are worthy to understand & consider as follows.

1- This election exposed the deep and broad scope and scale of corruption, criminal, illegal and illegitimate activities of various parts of U.S. political system for the entire world community.

2- Along with Brexit, the recent U.S. election and wining D. Trump as the next president indicates a fact that the collapse of Globalization Era has started. The experience of couple of decades globalization has had only poverty, unemployment, marginalization, disaster, chaos, tension and war (etc) for the majority of people all around the world. Throughout all these years, the corrupt politicians and pundits have done nothing to solve all these fundamental problems. As such, the majority of people have tried to bypass the corrupt politicians and pundits and fix their problems by this type of reaction like Brexit and voting for D. Trump. To put it simply, the entire world needs a new "World Order". The current world order needs fundamental adjustment and reforms.

3- The UK and the USA are two of the most economic powers in the world. Brexit and the result of recent election in the USA will impact the entire world not only in economic term but also in other arenas. As an example, some other countries might highly likely decide to follow the path of the UK and the USA in this matter. In this respect, France is one of the best candidate. If France would follow the path of UK & USA, the entire EU would highly likely collapse.

4- This election exposed the dishonesty and untrustworthy of large parts of media, pundits and politicians around the world for the entire international community. Throughout the last couple of months, for example, we all observed numerous polls, which showed Clinton was leading; not once or twice; hundreds times. If these types of polls were a few, we could have come to a logical conclusion such as "Scientific Error" or mistake. But couple of hundreds polls showing Clinton was leading, is not a simple Scientific Error. The result of recent U.S. election and wining D. Trump by a landslide, however, indicates a fast that media, politicians and pundits fabricated the polls and lied to all people around the world. As a result, the majority of people around the world do not trust media, some politicians and pundits anymore. Building the trust between ordinary people and the group of media, pundits and politicians would take couple of years time. This is a devastating news for all political systems around the world; due to the fact that media play an important role in every single society around the world. In addition, Those, who have academically studied Statistics & Research Methods remember Dewey-Truman error, From now on, all the books & articles in this subject, instead of Dewey-Truman error, would use Clinton-Trump (fake & fabricated polls).


M. Sirani                                         09.11.2016  

Congratulations To the American People And the Entire World: The Criminal, Corrupt And Warmonger Hillary Clinton Was Not Elected.

As i Predicted In Many Occasions, Since nearly 2 Years Ago, A Republican i.e. Donald Trump Was Elected As The Next President of the USA.

Without Cheating & Fraud, Trump will Highly Likely Win the Election By A Landslide.

Be Prepared For Series of Uprisings & Revolts Across the USA In the Next Coming Days; If Trump Will Not Be Elected.

Briefly:

In a new statement, FBI Director J. Comey states that FBI would not press any charge against Hillary Clinton. FBI’s unfair, unjust and unethical reactions happen, while every single criminal, illegal and illegitimate activities of Hillary Clinton could face a trial and severe legal punishment and imprisonment; while the majority of American people have been reading numerous leaked scandalous emails of Hillary Clinton and her allies on daily bases, whether through Wikileaks or any other sources. 

Comey's statement in this matter is not a pleasant event for tens of millions Americans, who are supporting D. J. Trump. FBI Director J. Comey should wish Trump will be elected as the next U.S. President. Otherwise, the unfair, unjust and unethical decision of J. Comey would enforce tens of thousands Americans, who deeply are sicking tired of corruption within U.S. political system, to revolt across the USA in the next coming days. FBI Director J. Comey should understand that the majority of Americans don't tolerate anymore such unfair, unjust and unethical behavior. If J. Comey has enough knowledge and data about high rates unemployment, poverty, inequality before the law, large numbers of marginalized people, homeless, discrimination, food stamps, etc, he would have not released such a statement at such a historical critical moment. The statement of J. Comey released today, is the biggest mistake of FBI and its Director in my opinion. 

Note: If Trump will not be elected, the waves of uprising & revolt will hit many places in the USA. FBI Director Comey should consider:

A- The Large numbers of marginalized Afro-Americans, Hispanics and in short minorities, who are not satisfied with their conditions in different terms.

Plus

B- The Large numbers of Trump supporters, who are sicking tired of corruption within the U.S. political system.

Plus

C- The hibernated followers of ISIS, Al-Qaeda and those radical Islamic terrorist groups, who are waiting for a chaotic environment to pursue their terrorist activities. 

Important: Does FBI Director Comey or any other U.S. politician understand what would happen to the USA, when the combination of these three actors mentioned above simultaneously would erupt?
(Whether some like it or not; i don't care. But i believe BUNCH OF INEXPERIENCED KIDS ARE GOVERNING THE USA. These bunch of kids not only are ruining the USA in different terms, but also causing enormous instability, chaos and disater around the world; simply because they are kids; simply because they don't have proper knowledge, working experience and qualification).

M. Sirani                      06.11.2016

The Arab Spring is Causing The Western Spring.

Briefly: (Those, who follow the news & development in various parts of the world, understand what i'm talking about).

Colin Powell designed "Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative". Implementation of this plan caused massive uprising, turmoil and instability known as "Arab Spring" across the Middle East & North Africa.

The backlash of this totally wrong plan in different terms e.g. influx of refugees and the threat of radical Islamic terrorism is targeting the western countries and is causing the Western Spring.
In this respect, Brexit, the diminishing popularity of some political leaders in the West e.g. Angela Markel in Germany, the rise of right wing political parties across the EU and winning the current U.S. election by D. Trump could be mentioned.


Note: None of these genius Think Tanks (in my opinion Ding Dangs) has written a simple essay in this regard. These genius are good only in Copying & Pasting the historical events and nothing else.  


M. Sirani                5.11.2016

What Did I Predict Nearly Two Years Ago About 2016 U.S. Election?

The Next President of the USA Will Be A Republican.

The Next President of the USA Will Be A Republican.

I don't believe to astrology or prediction of an event in the future based on some type of dream or nightmare. But with high probability, i can say that the next president of the USA will be a Republican; unless a fundamental miracle happens in the foreign policy of the Obama administration in the next two years. If the Republican party chooses good and smart candidate and vice president (Not someone like Sara Palin; with all due respect to her), the party will win the next election by highest margin.

In short, i'm not a fan of Republican party or Neocon group or so-called warmongers. But, when it comes to the foreign policy, we (most of the people around the world) knew what the President Bush did want; we knew where his foreign policy would end up; we knew what was his main objective in every move. But with the Obama administration such a prediction is almost impossible. The administration moves first and then in the middle of the way stop in order to find a solution. In this respect, different examples could be mentioned. The latest chemical attack in Syria, which took place on 21.08.21013 is an example; when the President said the U.S. would attack Syria and later he changed his decision.

The recent unnecessary tension in Ukraine is another example. Such an unnecessary tension, which was based on wrong analysis and miscalculation of the administration has dragged Ukraine into a devastating and destructive civil war. This event, in addition, has caused many economic, political and social problems for Ukraine and the whole EU in different scales. Who/ how/when do you want to solve the problem in Ukraine? What did you achieve in this conflict so far?

The current war against ISIS is another example of mismanagement and miscalculation of the Obama administration. The administration has begun a war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria and it has called it "Systematic Counter Terrorism Strategy". But there are lots of flaw and ambiguity in this plan as i have discussed some of them in my short essay entitled: Obama's plan against ISIS: a fundamental solution or opening a new Pandora's Box in the Middle East. As i follow the news, i have come to the conclusion that this is not a Counter Terrorism Strategy, because words including "Strategy" have their own meaning and definition. What we are witnessing in Iraq and Syria are just some sudden tactical military operations in Iraq and Syria without any real future perspective.

The same as other examples mentioned above, the administration has begun with some move in Iraq and Syria; but they don't know where exactly they are going. They have started the war; but in the Middle of the way they have come up with the idea that they need ground forces; because the air strikes alone do not function properly. They have started the war in a hope that the moderate Syrian opposition gain the momentum on the ground against Assad's Regime; but in the middle of the way they have understood that the Syrian moderate opposition does not have proper capacity to do that. So is the case of Iraqi forces. So is the case of members of the coalition. Some of them have supported the ISIS and Al-Nusra front in different terms for many years. Now, they are members of a coalition against ISIS. Some like Turkey performs prisoners swap with ISIS, while innocent American and English journalists and aid workers such as Alan Henning would be beheaded by ISIS, etc.

Based on all mentioned above and many other examples, i predict that the next president of the USA will be a Republican. 

Foreign policy based on spontaneous and impulsive decision would undoubtedly end up to a huge fiasco.    


Sirani                              07.10.2014

Warning: Global Economic Downturn: Stock Market Will Highly Likely Go Down At Global Level For A While; The Price of Gold Will Also Increase for A While (Lucky Canada Signed CETA Deal With EU & Saved Itself To Some Extent).

Briefly: Trump will win the election in a landslide.

At global level, some countries have a very slow economic growth or some are in reality experiencing an economic recession. Economically, things are getting more chaotic & worse and we will experience more economic downturn. How far or how deep and how long? I cannot say anything in these matters at the present. But i predict, some countries might highly likely experience deeper recession, or some type of double-dip recession and in some extreme cases (In terms of prolonging & timing) some countries might experience economic depression for a while.

Note: Canada & Mexico will be hit badly. (I'm fully aware that Canada was one of those few states, which didn't experience economic depression or recession in 2008 global economic crisis. Regarding the upcoming economic downturn, i should imply that Canada is lucky; due to the fact that just couple days ago, Canada signed CETA deal with EU. Canada has saved itself to some extent. But not Mexico.


M. Sirani                   03.11.2016   

Moody's Analytics Model Predicts Today That Hillary Clinton Will Win the Election By A Landslide. I "Mehran Sirani" Say Donald Trump Will Win the Election By a Landslide Based on Many Reasons & Factors.

Let see an internationally famous organization like Moody is predicting correctly or Mehran Sirani. (Bunch of copiers & pasters call themselves analyst or expert).

M. Sirani                  02.11.2016